Matthijs Meijers, Denis Ruchnewitz, Jan Eberhardt, Marta Łuksza, Michael Lässig

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, and antigenic changes that reduce cross- immunity induced by previous infections or vaccinations. How this functional variation shapes global evolu- tion has remained unclear. Here, we establish a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2 that integrates antigenic and intrinsic selection. 

The model is informed by tracking of time-resolved sequence data, epide- miological records, and cross-neutralization data of viral variants. Our inference shows that immune pres- sure, including contributions of vaccinations and previous infections, has become the dominant force driving the recent evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The fitness model can serve continued surveillance in two ways. First, it successfully predicts the short-term evolution of circulating strains and flags emerging variants likely to displace the previously predominant variant. Second, it predicts likely antigenic profiles of successful escape variants prior to their emergence.

Population immunity predicts evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 – new paper in appeared in Cell

New paper on predicting the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 appeared in Cell

We are pleased to announce that we were awarded new grant within the CEIRR network. The grant will support collaboration between theory and experimental researchers at Previr and the lab of Adolfo Garcia Sastre at Mount Sinai, New York. The aim of the funded project is to enhance our understanding of the immune response to influenza vaccines.

The Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response (CEIRR) Network is a multidisciplinary and collaborative research network funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) to study the natural history, transmission, and pathogenesis of influenza and provide an international research infrastructure to address influenza outbreaks.